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Manas Chakravarty, Mint’s Consulting Editor and Mark to Market columnist talks about why the Budget reacted negatively to the Budget.

He says the markets plunged because the investors were disappointed by an absence of sweeping reforms and pro-market measures. Also, the disinvestment figure of Rs1,120 crore was very low.

He futher added that the government had in fact missed a good opportunity to assure the markets of its road map for the next five years. “Although the government has tried it’s best to stimulate the economy, it has fallen short of expectations,” he said.
Indian shares extended losses to 5.8% at markets close as the budget failed to live up to expectations and on concerns over a higher fiscal deficit in the current fiscal year.
Showering blessings? The Met department has predicted that total rainfall for the crucial June-September monsoon will be below normal for the first time in four years. This has temporarily scared investors. Punit Paranjpe / Reuters

Showering blessings? The Met department has predicted that total rainfall for the crucial June-September monsoon will be below normal for the first time in four years. This has temporarily scared investors. Punit Paranjpe / Reuters

Much on expected lines, key indices fell initially, but bounced back on bargain hunting at lower levels. The gains were not limited to India; global bourses also showed resilience in the face of lingering economic concerns. Positive data flow spurred the northward momentum.

In India, the markets took their cues from global economic indicators and showed signs of strength despite the fact that the prediction of a below-normal monsoon raised fresh concerns about the strength of an economic revival.

The India Meteorological Department on Wednesday predicted that total rainfall for the crucial June-September monsoon would be only 93% of the long-term average, coming in below normal for the first time in four years. The news created a temporary scare among investors.

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Mumbai: Indian shares erased an early fall and climbed 0.7% on Wednesday as investors covered their short positions ahead of the monthly derivatives expiry, but the market undertone was weak due to a delay in monsoon.

Larsen & Toubro, which lost nearly a tenth of its value in the last two weeks, led the gains on speculation the engineering and construction firm would benefit from expected higher spending on infrastructure.

The government’s annual budget on 6 July is expected to spell out bold plans to improve overburdened roads, ports and other infrastructure to help boost growth.

However, annual monsoon rains, which are a lifeline for the country’s trillion dollar economy, have weakened and are expected to be below normal, the government said on Wednesday.

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Ending 14 consecutive weeks of gains, key indices slipped on profit selling by funds and traders last week. I had mentioned in my previous column that the markets had started showing signs of fatigue and a correction was on the cards. The main index dropped 4.7% on the week, after rallying 83% over the previous 14 weeks— its best run in four years. The decline was moderate and well within the limits of a technical correction; fresh buying at lower levels shows there is appetite for quality stocks.

A similar trend was witnessed in key global markets as well and, except China, all the major bourses ended with losses. In the US, the Dow fell 3%, the S&P lost 2.6%, and the Nasdaq dropped 1.7% for the week.

That was despite the emergence of encouraging data. Data ranging from production/manufacturing and jobless claims to inflation measured by consumer and wholesale prices sent out a message that the US economy is on the track to recovery. Read more

Image from Hindu Business Line

Image from Hindu Business Line


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In May, after the general elections propelled the United Progressive Alliance into power, the Indian stock markets reacted with undisguised glee; the Sensex recorded its largest-ever single-day rally in percentage terms, rising 2,110 points.

The sentiment was predicated, as so much is in economics, on expectations: The stock markets expected the UPA, now free of its Communist partnerships and even otherwise unhindered in Parliament, to push through market-friendly policies, and thus it reacted with optimism.
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