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Manas Chakravarty, Mint’s Consulting Editor and Mark to Market columnist talks about why the Budget reacted negatively to the Budget.

He says the markets plunged because the investors were disappointed by an absence of sweeping reforms and pro-market measures. Also, the disinvestment figure of Rs1,120 crore was very low.

He futher added that the government had in fact missed a good opportunity to assure the markets of its road map for the next five years. “Although the government has tried it’s best to stimulate the economy, it has fallen short of expectations,” he said.
Indian shares extended losses to 5.8% at markets close as the budget failed to live up to expectations and on concerns over a higher fiscal deficit in the current fiscal year.

The guessing game finally reaches its climax on Monday, when finance minister Pranab Mukherjee unveils the 2009-10 budget. Financial market participants and economists have been debating what the budget will deliver since the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance returned to power in May.

Some investors are betting that the budget would herald a new generation of economic reforms. The big question: Will the government be able to deliver what the economy needs and what the stock market wants? The answer will be available only on Monday; it is hoped the government would fulfil some major demands of the economy and that should satisfy the stock market. Read more

The stock market has put up a disappointing show in a month after the budget announcement seven times in the past 10 years, but analysts have opined that this time the government’s move on policy reforms may provide a positive surprise.

An analysis of the market performance one month prior and a month after the Budget announcement in the past 10 years by Morgan Stanley showed that the Bombay Stock Exchange index, Sensex, had been in the positive territory on just three occasions. Read more

Ending 14 consecutive weeks of gains, key indices slipped on profit selling by funds and traders last week. I had mentioned in my previous column that the markets had started showing signs of fatigue and a correction was on the cards. The main index dropped 4.7% on the week, after rallying 83% over the previous 14 weeks— its best run in four years. The decline was moderate and well within the limits of a technical correction; fresh buying at lower levels shows there is appetite for quality stocks.

A similar trend was witnessed in key global markets as well and, except China, all the major bourses ended with losses. In the US, the Dow fell 3%, the S&P lost 2.6%, and the Nasdaq dropped 1.7% for the week.

That was despite the emergence of encouraging data. Data ranging from production/manufacturing and jobless claims to inflation measured by consumer and wholesale prices sent out a message that the US economy is on the track to recovery. Read more

Take a look at the accompanying chart. It compares the huge rise in the Sensex since the beginning of March with the rally in the second half of 2007.

The first thing you notice is how extraordinary the recent run-up has been, with the Sensex rising much higher in a shorter span of time. A casual glance would suggest the market in the last few months has been like the 2007 market on steroids.
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The Bombay Stock Exchange’s (BSE) benchmark index, the Sensex, gained for a 14th consecutive week on buying by foreign funds. As expected, however, the markets showed signs of weakness from the middle of the week and declined on Thursday and Friday.

The signs of fatigue had been expected. One noticeable change is that investors have started reacting negatively to even positive news—a trend not limited to India alone. News that US banks would repay funds received under the so-called Troubled Asset Relief Program was encouraging as a sign of recovery in the US financial system. But the market reacted negatively.

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